North Carolina enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament with an unfamiliar challenge: its lowest seed ever. The 11th-seeded Tar Heels (22-13) were the final team selected for the tournament and will face No. 11 seed San Diego State (21-9) in the First Four on Tuesday (9:10 p.m. ET, TruTV) in Dayton. The winner moves on to battle No. 6 seed Ole Miss (22-11) in Milwaukee on Friday (4:05 p.m. ET, TNT) as part of the South Region. Previously, UNC’s lowest tournament seeding was No. 8, and the program has a solid 12-5 record in those situations, including a run to the national title game in 2022 under Hubert Davis.
Can UNC Make a Deep Run?
The Tar Heels have turned things around lately, winning eight of their last 10 games by relying on a more traditional lineup. A key factor in this late-season surge? Three-point shooting. Veteran guards RJ Davis and Jae’Lyn Withers have been crucial, with UNC going 7-1 when Withers hits multiple threes and 11-5 when Davis knocks down at least three. This perimeter success has also created space for big man Ven-Allen Lubin, who recorded three straight double-doubles in the ACC Tournament. If UNC wants to advance to the Sweet 16 or beyond, they’ll need to stay hot from deep.
Tough Schedule Could Work in UNC’s Favor
Though the Heels struggled against elite teams, their battle-tested schedule might give them an edge. UNC faced three of the four No. 1 seeds in this year’s tournament but went 0-4 in those games. Losses to Auburn and Duke were one-sided, but UNC pushed Florida and Duke to the limit in other matchups. Meanwhile, their upcoming opponents aren’t in peak form San Diego State has dropped two of its last three games, while Ole Miss enters the tournament having lost five of its last eight. If the Tar Heels win both, they could face No. 3 seed Iowa State (24-9), a team that has lost four of its last seven. The path to a deep run may not be as daunting as it seems.
UNC’s Biggest Weakness: Consistency
UNC’s season has been defined by inconsistency, a problem head coach Hubert Davis has acknowledged multiple times. The team has had slow starts, offensive slumps, and poor finishes, which contributed to its 13 losses. The most glaring example? Their ACC Tournament game against Duke, where UNC fell behind by 24 points before mounting a late comeback. If they continue this “flip-the-switch” approach, they may not last long in March Madness.
Defense Could Be a Major Hurdle
UNC’s biggest challenge may be breaking through against elite defensive teams. San Diego State (25th), Ole Miss (13th), and Iowa State (9th) all rank among the top 25 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The Heels are 0-9 against teams in that category this season, and in four of their last five games against top defensive squads, they failed to score 70 points. UNC has struggled with ball movement, taking tough shots, and over-dribbling issues that could lead to an early exit.
Prediction: UNC Falls in the Round of 32
The Tar Heels’ difficult non-conference schedule helped them secure one of the final at-large bids, and they’re playing their best basketball at the right time. However, they haven’t consistently strung together wins against top-tier opponents. Expect UNC to edge out San Diego State in the First Four and take down Ole Miss, but their run will likely end in the second round against Iowa State.
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