Sean Kelly – ‘Pogačar has more talent than Merckx but won’t equal him’

Sean Kelly’s professional career overlapped with that of cycling legend Eddy Merckx, and his second pro victory at the 1977 Circuit de l’Indre in France came at Merckx’s expense. At the time, Merckx was in his final full season at 31 years old, while Kelly had just turned 21 the day before.

Speaking to Stickybottle, Kelly reflected on rider longevity, motivation, and career length, suggesting Tadej Pogačar may be far closer to the end of his career than many realise, including his own team. Although Pogačar’s contract with UAE Team Emirates XRG runs until 2030, Kelly doubts he will be anywhere near his current level in five years and may even stop racing sooner. He was dismissive of the idea that Pogačar could win the next five Tours de France, predicting instead that boredom could push him into early retirement. In head-to-head racing, however, Kelly believes Jonas Vingegaard cannot beat Pogačar unless teammate Matteo Jorgenson reaches Tour-winning form to help wear him down a scenario Kelly sees as unlikely after Jorgenson’s “disappointing” Tour.

Kelly described Pogačar, now 26, as arguably the greatest endurance athlete today, but still unlikely to surpass Merckx’s record despite being in what should be his prime years. Comparing him to Mathieu van der Poel, Kelly said both prefer all-out racing efforts that are mentally and physically draining, making long careers less likely. He estimated Pogačar may have only three more competitive years before choosing to stop.

While Kelly believes Pogačar is more talented than Merckx capable of dominating in mountains, time trials, classics, and chaotic race conditions he doubts he will match Merckx’s longevity or palmarès.

Merckx’s achievements include 11 Grand Tour wins, 34 Tour stages, and multiple victories in Monuments such as Milan–Sanremo and Paris–Roubaix.

Kelly also countered the notion that modern pros race less than past generations, arguing that while race days have dropped from 160 to around 80–90, today’s riders face just as much workload due to intense training camps, altitude blocks, and year-round pressure to be at peak form from the very start of the season.