A historically predictable NCAA tournament is set to crown a champion with a showdown of powerhouse programs.
For the first time since 2008 and only the second time ever all four No. 1 seeds have reached the men’s Final Four. The first semifinal on Saturday will feature an SEC clash between regular-season champion Auburn (32-5) and conference tournament champion Florida (34-4), both battling for a shot at the national title.
In the night’s second matchup, Duke (35-3) faces what could be its toughest test of the postseason. The Blue Devils will take on a Houston team that has lost just once since Thanksgiving, thanks to its elite defense, rebounding dominance, and careful ball control.
Interestingly, the Alamodome also hosted the only other Final Four featuring all four No. 1 seeds. Back in 2008, Kansas defeated Memphis in overtime to claim Bill Self’s first national championship, with Mario Chalmers forcing extra time after Derrick Rose missed a crucial free throw. Since then, only once (2015) have three top seeds reached the Final Four, and not since 2016 have all four even made the Elite Eight.
“This year, the four best teams truly made it,” Auburn coach Bruce Pearl said after his team’s win on Sunday. “That doesn’t always happen.”
Looking back, signs pointed to this being a year where all four top seeds could go the distance. Statistically, the 2025 tournament featured one of the strongest groups of No. 1 seeds in recent memory. According to Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency metrics, Duke, Florida, Auburn, and Houston all entered the tournament with margins of 35 or higher meaning they would be expected to outscore an average Division I team by that many points over 100 possessions. The gap between these teams and even the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds was unusually large, as was the gap between them and most past national champions only two of the last 22 champions finished their tournament runs with efficiency margins over 35.
Beyond the numbers, the eye test confirms these teams’ dominance. Auburn and Florida emerged as the strongest squads from the country’s best conference. Houston ran away with the Big 12, winning the regular-season title by four games and securing the conference tournament championship. Meanwhile, Duke had a historic season in a weaker ACC, outscoring opponents by a staggering 434 points over 20 league games. None of these teams have been ranked outside the AP top six since mid-January.
Who’s the favorite? Oddsmakers say Duke and for good reason.
Jon Scheyer’s squad is the best Duke team in a decade, surpassing even the Zion Williamson–R.J. Barrett powerhouse and the Paolo Banchero-led group that reached Mike Krzyzewski’s final Final Four. Led by projected NBA lottery picks Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Khaman Maluach, the Blue Devils are challenging the belief that freshman-driven teams can’t win in an era dominated by experienced seniors and grad transfers.
Houston, however, will provide a major test. The Cougars boast the nation’s top defense and thrive on turning offensive rebounds into second-chance points. They’ll also be eager for redemption after last year’s Sweet 16 loss, a game they were leading before star guard Jamal Shead suffered an early injury.
On the other side of the bracket, Auburn appears to be peaking at the right time, while Florida has the tournament’s most clutch shooter in Walter Clayton Jr. If a game is on the line, he’s the last player opponents want to see taking the final shot just ask UConn or Texas Tech.
Is this the greatest Final Four field of all time? It’s certainly in the conversation.
An NCAA tournament without major upsets has set the stage for a heavyweight showdown. Next Saturday can’t come soon enough.
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