Thursday’s ACC Tournament action brought a significant development that could affect both ends of the bracket.
Duke’s standout freshman, Cooper Flagg, suffered a sprained ankle during the Blue Devils’ quarterfinal win over Georgia Tech. His availability for Friday’s semifinal against North Carolina remains uncertain, but coach Jon Scheyer sounded doubtful about his chances of playing.
This raises two key questions: How would a Duke loss to North Carolina affect their seeding? And would the selection committee diminish the Tar Heels’ win if they don’t go on to win the ACC?
How the Selection Committee Might React
One thing is clear—the committee does not speculate on what could have happened under different circumstances. If North Carolina defeats Duke, the result will stand as is. A win on Friday would likely solidify the Tar Heels’ place in the tournament, while Duke is still projected as a No. 1 seed even with a loss.
The only scenario where Duke’s seeding could be impacted is if Flagg is ruled out for the season and the committee determines that his absence significantly weakens the team. A precedent for this exists: in 2000, Cincinnati was ranked No. 1 when Kenyon Martin, the National Player of the Year, broke his leg in their conference tournament. The committee dropped the Bearcats to a No. 2 seed, believing they were no longer the same team. However, with Selection Sunday approaching quickly, it is unlikely that Flagg’s long-term status will be clear in time for a similar decision.
Duke fans, however, have reason to worry. If Flagg’s injury lingers, it could impact the team’s performance in both the ACC Tournament and beyond.
Other Bracket Developments
Elsewhere in the bracket, Texas Tech has replaced Texas A&M as a No. 2 seed following the Aggies’ loss to Texas in the SEC Tournament. The Red Raiders helped their case by defeating Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament.
On the bubble, four teams remain in contention. Boise State secured a key win over San Diego State and will now face top-seeded New Mexico in the Mountain West semifinals. Colorado State, another Mountain West bubble team, will take on Utah State in the other semifinal.
Texas has also re-entered the bubble conversation after beating Texas A&M. Their next challenge is Tennessee in the SEC Tournament.
While no new teams have entered the projected NCAA field, there has been some reshuffling among the final spots. Xavier is now the last team in after losing to Marquette in the Big East Tournament, while San Diego State remains just ahead of them. North Carolina is currently at the top of the “First Four Out” list.
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